⌚ Fall Assessment Research Paper

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Fall Assessment Research Paper



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They may also reallocate resources across sectors toward their highest-value economic use, resulting in increased efficiency and potentially raising the overall size of the economy. Results in the literature suggest that not all tax changes will have the same impact on growth. Reforms that improve incentives, reduce existing distortionary subsidies, avoid windfall gains, and avoid deficit financing will have more auspicious effects on the long-term size of the economy, but may also create trade-offs between equity and efficiency. Policy makers and researchers have long been interested in how potential changes to the personal income tax system affect the size of the overall economy. In , for example, Representative Dave Camp R-MI proposed a sweeping reform to the income tax system that would reduce rates, greatly pare back subsidies in the tax code, and maintain revenue levels and the distribution of tax burdens across income classes Committee on Ways and Means In this paper, we focus on how tax changes affect economic growth.

Our focus is on individual income tax reform, leaving consideration of reforms to the corporate income tax for which, see Toder and Viard and reforms that focus on consumption taxes for other analyses. This expansion could be an increase in the annual growth rate, a one-time increase in the size of the economy that does not affect the future growth rate but puts the economy on a higher growth path, or both. The importance is only heightened by concerns about the long-term economic growth rate Gordon ; Summers and concerns about the long-term fiscal status of the federal government Auerbach and Gale We find that, while there is no doubt that tax policy can influence economic choices, it is by no means obvious, on an ex ante basis, that tax rate cuts will ultimately lead to a larger economy in the long run.

While rate cuts would raise the after-tax return to working, saving, and investing, they would also raise the after-tax income people receive from their current level of activities, which lessens their need to work, save, and invest. The first effect normally raises economic activity through so-called substitution effects , while the second effect normally reduces it through so-called income effects. Wilcoxen , and Weifeng Liu Wednesday, May 31, The financing of tax cuts significantly affects its impact on long-term growth. Tax cuts financed by immediate cuts in unproductive government spending could raise output, but tax cuts financed by reductions in government investment could reduce output. If they are not financed by spending cuts, tax cuts will lead to an increase in federal borrowing, which in turn, will reduce long-term growth.

The historical evidence and simulation analyses suggest that tax cuts that are financed by debt for an extended period of time will have little positive impact on long-term growth and could reduce growth. Tax reform is more complex, as it involves tax rate cuts as well as base-broadening changes. There is a theoretical presumption that such changes should raise the overall size of the economy in the long-term, though the effect and magnitude of the impact are subject to considerable uncertainty. One fact that often escapes unnoticed is that broadening the tax base by reducing or eliminating tax expenditures raises the effective tax rate that people and firms face and hence will operate, in that regard, in a direction opposite to rate cuts and mitigate their effects on economic growth.

But base-broadening has the additional benefit of reallocating resources from sectors that are currently tax-preferred to sectors that have the highest economic pre-tax return, which should increase the overall size of the economy. A fair assessment would conclude that well-designed tax policies have the potential to raise economic growth, but there are many stumbling blocks along the way and certainly no guarantee that all tax changes will improve economic performance. Given the various channels through which tax policy affects growth, a tax change will be more growth-inducing to the extent that it involves i large positive incentive substitution effects that encourage work, saving, and investment; ii small or negative income effects, including a careful targeting of tax cuts toward new economic activity, rather than providing windfall gains for previous activities; iii reductions in distortions across economic sectors and across different types of income and consumption; and iv minimal increases in, or reductions in, the budget deficit.

Eberly and James H. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section II provides a conceptual framework by discussing the channels through which tax changes can affect economic performance, including the many ways in which a positive substitution effect in response to a tax rate cut might be dissipated or even reversed by other factors. Section III provides an empirical starting point. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Please click here to see any active alerts.

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